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Global warming is one of today's greatest challenges. The science of climate change leaves no doubt that policies to cut emissions are overdue. Yet, after twenty years of international talks and treaties, the world is now in gridlock about how best to do this. David Victor argues that such gridlock has arisen because international talks have drifted away from the reality of what countries are willing and able to implement at home. Most of the lessons that policy makers have drawn from the history of other international environmental problems won't actually work on the problem of global warming. Victor argues that a radical rethinking of global warming policy is required and shows how to make international law on global warming more effective. This book provides a roadmap to a lower carbon future based on encouraging bottom-up initiatives at national, regional and global levels, leveraging national self-interest rather than wishful thinking.
- Sales Rank: #1031771 in Books
- Brand: Brand: Cambridge University Press
- Published on: 2011-04-18
- Original language: English
- Number of items: 1
- Dimensions: 8.98" h x .98" w x 5.98" l, 1.65 pounds
- Binding: Hardcover
- 392 pages
- Used Book in Good Condition
Review
"Mr Victor is broadly versed in climate change, good on the science, the energy-related business and the politics as well as the policy, and [an] engaging writer...Mr Victor has delivered one of the most thought-provoking analyses of policy responses to climate change for some time."
- The Economist
"David Victor's voice on how to do successful climate diplomacy and policy is one of the most distinctive in today's world. It is a voice that needs to be listened to. Global Warming Gridlock exposes the myths, failures and naiveties of two decades of climate diplomacy. No prisoners are taken - diplomats, scientists, campaigners and engineers alike are placed in the firing line. Instead, and drawing upon his own profound analysis and experience of international environmental law, diplomacy and policy, Victor presents a convincing case for a pragmatic, incremental and credible approach to climate policy, in stark contrast to the idealistic, radical and incredible approach which has so feebly failed. Global Warming Gridlock adds its voice to the 'new realism' surrounding climate change science, discourse, politics and policy which is gaining important momentum following the scientific and diplomatic debacles of 2009/10." - Mike Hulme, University of East Anglia
"Uncertainty over global climate negotiations is impeding investment into the low-carbon economy. But policy gridlock is not inevitable. In his lucidly argued and timely new book, David Victor gives a pragmatic roadmap to help policymakers navigate their way around the current climate impasse." - Lord John Browne, Partner, Riverstone Holdings LLC and former CEO BP Plc
"In Global Warming Gridlock, David Victor combines a devastating critique of the prevailing UN-based process with a politically sophisticated argument for an alternative strategy based on climate clubs and deals. To understand the politics of climate change, read this book!" - Robert O. Keohane, Professor of Public and International Affairs, Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs, Princeton University
"The book covers a vast and in depth landscape of diplomatic history and is written in a compelling and engaging style. I particularly welcome Victor's focus on the need for better strategies to engage with emerging economies, such as India, that are making serious proactive contributions to mitigation, and adaptation, demonstrating that while they have not caused the problem, they will be part of the solution. His analysis takes to task, the existing diplomatic process, which he argues has not been designed with the needs of emerging countries in mind." - Jairam Ramesh, Minister of State (Independent Charge), Ministry of Environment and Forests, Government of India
"I cannot claim to have read all the books on global warming and climate change, but I've read enough, in the thirty years that I have been studying the subject, to assure you that it is exceedingly unlikely that there's another one out there that is as good, let alone better, than David Victor's. He is up to date on the science; he has more than two decades of experience in policy-making, especially international environmental policy-making; he is patient and fair-minded; and he writes in plain English. If you want to know what book to read, this one is it." - Thomas C. Schelling, Nobel Laureate in Economics, University of Maryland
About the Author
David Victor is a professor at the School of International Relations and Pacific Studies at the University of California, San Diego, where he also leads the Laboratory on International Law and Regulation. His research has covered a wide array of topics related to international environmental regulation, energy markets and international law. His previous books include Natural Gas and Geopolitics (Cambridge University Press, 2006), The Collapse of the Kyoto Protocol and the Struggle to Slow Global Warming (second edition, 2004) and Technological Innovation and Economic Performance (2002).
Most helpful customer reviews
16 of 17 people found the following review helpful.
Global Warming Gridlock
By Graham H. Seibert
David Victor starts with the premise that global warming is real and that the international community needs to do something about it. He provides a little bit of background on the science, summarized under the auspices of the United Nations' Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Control, but then goes into the political issue of doing something about it.
He says that there are three dimensions to a climate change strategy. First we need to regulate emissions. This means that we need to acknowledge that carbon-based fuels, and in particular coal, are going to provide a lot of the world's energy for a long time to come. Instead of dismissing them and praying for something new, we need to work intelligently with fossil fuels. In particular, we need to recognize that coal will continue to be used and encourage the most efficient possible practices for extracting energy from coal, and for dealing with the carbon dioxide created in burning coal.
Second is new technologies. As much as the Greens might wish, and politicians might promise that wind power, solar power, and hydroelectric are going to provide most of our energy really soon now, it simply cannot happen. There isn't enough wind, or enough real estate to put the solar collectors, or enough rivers to dam.
Victor says surprisingly little about nuclear energy. He should, given that it is the only plausible alternative source of the vast quantities of energy that the world consumes. Nuclear, while it does not contribute to global warming, is fraught with its own political problems, which have only become more serious since the earthquake in Japan. But this is a side note - he is right to focus on fossil fuels, where the major battle is to be fought.
Victor's third dimension is the most controversial. Given that the world cannot conceivably put the brakes on carbon emissions before there is substantial climate change, what do we do then? He talks about the rich nations' moral obligation to the poorer countries, the politics of adapting geo-engineering solutions which would employ a man-made devices to control the climate, and triage, simply giving up on places that cannot be saved. All of these involve difficult moral decisions. They would be difficult even for a single world body with the authority to implement them; they are almost impossible for a fractious bunch like the United Nations.
His major thesis is that we are using the wrong models to attempt to form international agreements. The world was lucky dealing with the ozone layer. The rich nations agreed to work on the problem, and it turned out to be easier to solve than anybody thought. The rich nations could easily afford to compensate the poorer nations for whatever sacrifices they made. And we went on to pretend that it was a truly global success, when in fact a handful of industrial nations had made it happen.
The United Nations is precisely the wrong place to look for a meaningful solution to global warming. First of all, many of the nations do not even know how much carbon dioxide they are emitting, among industry, deforestation, agriculture and other sources. Secondly, no country can promise significant changes. The amount of carbon dioxide produced is a matter of the level of economic activity, the rate of technological change, and a number of other factors that are beyond government control.
Diplomats at the UN level are trying to get commitment to binding agreements. Countries don't want to take chances by committing to things that they cannot deliver. Kyoto is a case in point. Bill Clinton's negotiators committed the United States to more than the Senate thought we could achieve, so they didn't ratify the treaty. Other countries did, some like Russia and China because the targets to which they committed were absurdly low, levels that they already met, and there were economic inducements such as money from cap-and-trade. The European Community, the so-called "enthusiastic countries," did put useful policies in place, but they also engaging gamesmanship, such as buying carbon credits.
Lastly, at the UN, the carbon fuel exporting companies are not keen on seeing their markets disappear. These same countries often don't have much of a green movement pushing them to reduce emissions. Victor calls these the "reluctant" countries, which have to be bribed for any concessions whatsoever.
After making it clear that the UN is the wrong forum, and binding treaties are probably the wrong vehicle, Victor talks about how it ought to be done. He says that the best models involve small groups of countries forming "clubs" involved in successive rounds of negotiation. GATT was the product of a number of rounds of negotiation among the leading economies of the world. The European Union started as the coal and steel community, a small club of powerful European countries. These efforts evolved into the WTO and the EU/NATO/Euro zone. Victor notes that as they have increased in size, their negotiations have become exponentially more difficult.
Victor notes that a mere handful of political entities - the United States, the European Union, China, and optionally Japan, Russia and Brazil, account for most emissions, and almost all of the science and technology to do something about them. They are also home to the most powerful green movements. It would make far more sense, he proposes, for these countries to negotiate among themselves. They should establish targets, which can be much more ambitious than binding agreements, and measure each other's progress toward these targets. They should structure their negotiations to keep the benefits within the negotiating group - something which Victor concedes would contravene agreements with the WTO.
Much more has been written on the science of global warming, and the threat of global warming, than the politics of doing something about it. Victor says as much. He cites the "scientist's myth" that scientists can agree on causes and safe levels of global warming, the "diplomat's myth" that countries can arrive at a treaty which is in the collective best interest, and the "engineer's myth" that the markets will naturally converge on intelligent solutions to the problem because there is money to be made.
Victor's focuses on the "diplomat's myth," certainly worth an entire book, and this is a worthy book on that topic. I recommend also "A vast machine" which describes the science of modeling global warming - how we know it's real - and "Whole Earth Discipline" which is a surprisingly undogmatic assessment of the problem by a longtime member of the Green community. If anybody reads this review and has not yet read the IPCC reports, easily downloaded from the Internet, whatever their flaws they are essential background to any participation in the climate change discussion.
2 of 2 people found the following review helpful.
Pragmatism Needed to Unlock Global Warming Gridlock
By Serge J. Van Steenkiste
David Victor relies on the available science to conclude that the main contribution of humanity to climate change is the carbon dioxide (CO2) that is a byproduct of burning fossil fuels that power our modern economies.
Mr. Victor identifies three distinct challenges that global warming represents for policy making and implementation:
1) Cutting emissions: Most diplomacy has focused on targets and timetables to reduce emissions of CO2 within a universal forum without actually doing much to protect the climate. These global goals reflect what the author calls the "scientist's myth." This myth is based on the belief that once a scientific consensus is achieved, regulation will come in its aftermath. This top-down approach ignores how power, interests, and capabilities interact with each other at the state level. Each country has to figure out which emissions it will be able and willing to cut without undermining its competitiveness in a globalized economy.
2) Technological innovation: Radically new technologies will be needed to use energy more efficiently. Mr. Victor debunks both the "engineer's" and "environmentalist's" myths on this subject. The "engineer's myth" reflects the conviction that once inventors have created new technologies, these inventions can quickly enter into service. The "environmentalist's myth" ignores the reality that the real policy challenges of global warming are related to the design and management of a slow, costly, and difficult transformation in how society obtains and uses energy. History shows that world's energy systems cannot change much faster than at a 50-70 year pace.
3) Bracing for change: The earth will get warmer and climate will change further before emissions of CO2 can be stabilized and eventually reduced in the coming decades. To cope with change, (some) states will have to pursue two separate strategies: Adaptation, which is mainly a reflection of each country's internal makeup, and geoengineering, which is the direct intervention in nature to offset (crudely) the effects of global warming.
To overcome the lack of significant progress in tackling climate change, Mr. Victor makes six arguments:
1) Gridlock on global warming exists, to a large extent, because governments have relied too much on the history of international environmental accords. Think for example about the successful Montreal Protocol on Substances That Deplete the Ozone Layer of 1987. These accords are a poor fit for regulating emissions of CO2 that require complicated coordination of policies that are costly and therefore a possible threat to one country's global competitiveness.
2) Twelve countries, including the European Union treated as one, generate about 77% of emissions. Drawing heavily from the history of organizations such as the European Union and the World Trade Organization, Mr. Victor proposes the creation of a "club" where these countries will make contingent commitments, "bids," towards each other. This bottom-up approach will require that each of these twelve countries makes a flexible, credible bid that has two components: A. declarations of what the country will do and B. a promise of additional efforts contingent of what other countries might do. This club approach has distinctive advantages such as making it easier to come up with complicated deals and better channeling benefits such as preferential access to clean energy markets and carbon credits to other club members. These benefits will, in turn, give non-members a strong incentive to join the club and abide by its rules. The United Nations (UN) approach to climate change lacks credibility in achieving results because it is the wrong forum to get these results. The UN will enhance its reputation on this subject by taking a back seat to the club that Mr. Victor calls for.
3) The "enthusiastic" industrialized countries such as Germany and Japan, which are willing to spend their own resources to control emissions, have the strongest incentive to lead this effort through contingent bids. Contingency will be key to alleviating concerns with global competitiveness of any participating country. The outcome of these negotiations will result in the signature of what the author calls "climate accession deals (CADs)."
4) The "reluctant" countries such as China and India, which will account for most of the growth in future emissions, have to be engaged through the same kinds of deals. The current approach of paying them the entire additional cost of controlling emissions has undermined their incentive to do more on this subject. Think for example about the Kyoto Protocol's Clean Development Mechanism (CDM). Credibly sun-setting these payments will help address this lack of incentive to act.
5) The club approach will require the creation of new institutions based on the philosophy of "trust but verify" that ensures accountability, enforcement, and transparency.
6) Implementing this approach will require time to negotiate the CADs and subsequently to transform the world's energy systems. In the meantime, adaptation and geoengineering will be needed to cope with the effects of a changing climate.
Mr. Victor estimates that the climate talks are evolving in the direction that he pleads for not by design but rather by default. This evolution by default does not bode well because it lacks the club approach that is the best bet currently available to unlock climate change gridlock. The author deplores that no major country, including the U.S., is taking the lead in reforming the failed process mentioned above.
In summary, Mr. Victor calls for a thorough reexamination of the universal approach to climate change that is based mostly on wishful thinking and empty promises that have little chance to become reality anytime soon.
1 of 1 people found the following review helpful.
Sensible + Balanced + Proactive
By RobSchlapfer
An outstanding contribution to the literature on Climate Change, et al. A good primer for anyone looking to analyze this topic with open + engaged *mind*. A substantive read.
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